First Quarter 2025: Big movers and murky futures
Our Markets & Metals feature of Wreckonomics™ series closes the first quarter of 2026 observing a very surprising shift. The scrap metals market is experiencing a period of historic volatility and record-breaking price action. While the end of 2025 showed signs of stability, Q1 2026 has been defined by extreme unpredictable change, particularly in the rare metals and catalytic metal sectors. While a 25% tariff on imported aluminum and steel has been in effect since March 2025, the primary market driver is now the construction and manufacturing sector’s aggressive pivot toward aluminum materials. This shift has created a massive “Value Gap”: the specific metals required for lightweight EV frames and infrastructure are soaring to record heights, yet the market for whole crushed units remains stagnant. For suppliers, this quarter is defined by high-value inventory windfalls on one side and a significant logistical “margin squeeze” on the other.
Aluminum
Aluminum has solidified its position as an metals powerhouse, closing out the first quarter of 2026 at a price of $3,372.95 per ton. This represents a substantial 26.88% increase over the March 2025 price of $2,658.29. This growth is primarily driven by the construction and manufacturing industries aggressive pivot toward lightweight frames and materials, a move that has created a significant surge in demand for recycled aluminum. Additionally, market prices remain bolstered by the 25% tariff on aluminum and steel that was first imposed in March 2025. Overall, the outlook is good, as the current climate offers a highly profitable environment for aluminum recyclers and secondary smelters.
Recycling Growth in Rare Metals Market
Once again we’re observing a terrific rise in values of the Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) the family of precious noble metallic elements – platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium iridium and osmium – known for their exceptional catalytic properties, high melting points, and superior resistance to corrosion and wear. Because these metals are essential for emissions compliance, automotive manufacturers relied heavily on “secondary” (recycled) supply to bypass primary mining shortages. Recycled sources now supply approximately 35% of the global PGM market.
Let’s take a look at a few of these in Q1
PLATINUM: Reached $2,079.70 per oz, a massive 110.22% increase over March 2025
- Rhodium: Prices remained remarkably firm in Q4, supported by the lowest above-ground stocks in 40 years. The extreme scarcity continues to make catalytic converter theft a high-risk factor for the industry.
Palladium
2026 marked a pivotal shift for Palladium. For the first time since 2021, the market saw a price jump from December to January, breaking a multi-year trend of New Year declines. After a hot start, the metal stabilized with a negligible month-over-month change of -0.03%, ending the quarter at $1,561 per ounce. Despite the mid-quarter plateau, March 2026 prices remained 61.05% higher than the $969 per ounce seen in March 2025.
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Platinum
Platinum: The undisputed heavyweight champion of 2025 continued it’s remarkable gains in 2026. Reaching $2,448 per oz in January before closing the quarter at 2079.70 per oz, a massive 110.22% increase over March 2025. This was powered by persistent supply deficits from major mining hubs like South Africa and Russia.
Rhodium
Prices remained remarkably firm in Q4, supported by the lowest above-ground stocks in 40 years. Rhodium closed March at $11,288.07 per oz, which marks a 106.33% increase over its value the previous year.
Price performance of Rhodium
Crushed Auto Bodies
The most significant indicator of end of life vehicle demand is the sale of whole ‘auto hulks’ processed (environmental handling, parts, cores and rare metals retrieved) by auto recyclers to shedding operations for production into recycled content. The primary raw material is the ferrous metals found in these crushed autos.
The market for ferrous auto scrap in Q1 did not follow the explosion of value in the PMG Group. There was some fluctuation in the month but the quarter remained relatively stable overall.
Source: Advanced Remarketing Services
Fuel Prices
Gas prices in Q1 2026 experienced a dramatic, news-heavy reversal. The year began with expectations of low prices due to a global supply surplus, but a massive geopolitical shock in the Middle East sent prices surging by the end of the quarter. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil supply, became impassable due to regional conflict. This led to production shut-ins of approximately 7.5 million barrels per day in March alone. This sent fuel prices skyrocketing.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Q1 2026 Summary
The uncertainty surrounding conflict in the middle east makes forecasting a difficult exercise. Q1 saw many positive signals, the massive gains in Platinum and Palladium are largely attributed to a tightening of supply from major mining regions and an unexpected “double-demand” scenario: high-end internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are still requiring high-grade catalytic converters, while new hydrogen fuel cell technologies are beginning to scale, requiring Platinum as a catalyst. Macroeconomic factors like interest rates and global trade tensions will cause “sawtooth” price movements. For those with significant inventory, Q1 2026 represents one of the strongest selling windows in recent years.
If your organization has a consistent volume of low value, high mileage and older vehicles, we should talk. Reach out to any of our team directly or email us at arsinfo@arscars.com